Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six games, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the wins have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
